Pew recently conducted a survey of 895 technology “stakeholders,” comprised of both technology experts and individuals who represent the Internet savvy public. The survey presented “potential-future scenarios to which respondents [reacted] with their expectations based on current knowledge and attitudes.” According to Pew,
“Respondents to the Future of the Internet IV survey, fielded from Dec. 2, 2009 to Jan. 11, 2010, were asked to consider the future of the Internet-connected world between now and 2020 and the likely innovation that will occur. They were asked to assess 10 different “tension pairs” – each pair offering two different 2020 scenarios with the same overall theme and opposite outcomes – and they were asked to select the one most likely choice of two statements. The tension pairs and their alternative outcomes were constructed to reflect previous statements about the likely evolution of the Internet.”
To complete the study, Pew based their survey on the following five questions.
Pew’s first question addresses the widespread concern that the Internet is adversely impacting people’s thinking skills. In 2008 Nicholas Carr, writing for the Atlantic Monthly, wrote a provocative piece with the cover line, “Is Google Making Us Stupid?” Carr argues that the nature of online searching and reading are limiting people’s ability to concentrate in a way that promotes “The kind of deep reading that a sequence of printed pages promotes is valuable not just for the knowledge we acquire from the author’s words but for the intellectual vibrations those words set off within our own minds.” Carr’s argument has touched off a firestorm in academic circles. In response, Pew decided to probe Carr’s concerns as part of their study. Is the Internet making us stupid? According to the survey,
“Google won’t make us stupid: 76% of these experts agreed with the statement, “By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information they become smarter and make better choices. Nicholas Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid.”
Pew’s second question focuses on the impact the Internet will have on important literacy skills. According to the report,
“Reading, writing, and the rendering of knowledge will be improved: 65% agreed with the statement by 2020 “it will be clear that the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge.” Still, 32% of the respondents expressed concerns that by 2020 “it will be clear that the Internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge.”
Pew’s third question is interesting: Will the technologists be able to effectively identify important trends in innovation? The survey found the following:
“Innovation will continue to catch us by surprise: 80% of the experts agreed that the “hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imaginations of users in 2020 will often come ‘out of the blue.’”
Pew’s fourth question addresses an important concern of most educators: Will information continue to flow freely and with minimal regulation of the Internet? Again, the respondents to Pew’s survey provided interesting insight.
“Respondents hope information will flow relatively freely online, though there will be flashpoints over control of the internet. Concerns over control of the Internet were expressed in answers to a question about the end-to-end principle. 61% responded that the Internet will remain as its founders envisioned, however many who agreed with the statement that “most disagreements over the way information flows online will be resolved in favor of a minimum number of restrictions” also noted that their response was a “hope” and not necessarily their true expectation. 33% chose to agree with the statement that “the Internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and …content will be successful in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access it.”
Pew’s final question addresses an important concern most technologists have with the growing threat to online anonymity. According to the 895 respondents,
“Anonymous online activity will be challenged, though a modest majority still think it will possible in 2020: There more of a split verdict among the expert respondents about the fate on online anonymity. Some 55% agreed that Internet users will still be able to communicate anonymously, while 41% agreed that by 2020 “anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed.”
What will the Internet look like in 2020? I’d like to hear your thoughts.
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